An evidential Markov decision making model

An evidential Markov decision making model

The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and Markov modelling is proposed to address this issue and model the real human decision-making process. In a...

Evidential Markov Decision Processes

This paper proposes a new model, the EMDP (Evidential Markov Decision Process). It is a MDP (Markov Decision Process) for belief functions in which rewards are defined for each state transition, like in a classical MDP, whereas the transitions are modeled as in an EMC (Evidential Markov Chain), i.e. they are sets transitions instead of states transitions. The EMDP can fit to more applications t...

An AHP-Delphi Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model with Application to Environmental Decision-Making

An Evidential Measure of Risk in Evidential Markov Chains

This paper provides a new method for computing a risk criterion for decision-making in systems modelled by an Evidential Markov Chain (EMC), which is a generalization to the Dempster-Shafer’s Theory of Evidence [1]: it is a Markov chain manipulating sets of states instead of the states themselves. A cost is associated to each state. An evidential risk measurement derived from the statistical on...

Comprehensive Decision Modeling of Reverse Logistics System: A Multi-criteria Decision Making Model by using Hybrid Evidential Reasoning Approach and TOPSIS (TECHNICAL NOTE)

In the last two decades, product recovery systems have received increasing attention due to several reasons such as new governmental regulations and economic advantages. One of the most important activities of these systems is to assign returned products to suitable reverse manufacturing alternatives. Uncertainty of returned products in terms of quantity, quality, and time complicates the decis...